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data science / statistics / probability

Mean Methods.

The mean is lying to you

n = 6 | p < 0.05 | σ ≠ 0
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statisticsdata sciencedecision making

Goodhart's Law: Why Every Metric You Optimize Will Eventually Betray You

Goodhart's Law explains why optimizing for any metric destroys its usefulness as a measure, and why your KPIs are probably lying to you right now.

C. Pearson C. Pearson
· · 4 min read
Archive
statisticsdata science

The Ecological Fallacy: What's True for Groups Is Not True for People

The ecological fallacy silently corrupts data analysis. Here's why group-level statistics can't tell you what you think they can about individuals.

C. Pearson C. Pearson
· · 4 min read
probabilitycognitive bias

The Gambler's Fallacy: Why Your Brain Thinks Coins Have Memory

The Gambler's Fallacy feels like logic but it's a statistical trap, and it's costing you more than casino chips.

C. Pearson C. Pearson
· · 4 min read
probabilitydecision theory

Expected Value Is a Lie Your Brain Can't Process

Expected value is the most useful concept in probability, and one of the most systematically misapplied. Here's why your intuition keeps betraying you.

C. Pearson C. Pearson
· · 5 min read
probabilitystatistics

The Prosecutor's Fallacy: How Probability Gets Weaponized in Courtrooms (and Boardrooms)

The prosecutor's fallacy flips conditional probability, and it doesn't just convict innocent people. It quietly corrupts decisions everywhere.

C. Pearson C. Pearson
· · 4 min read
statisticsdata visualization

Anscombe's Quartet: Four Datasets That Make Statistics Look Stupid

Anscombe's Quartet proves that identical summary statistics can hide wildly different data, and why you should always visualize before you calculate.

C. Pearson C. Pearson
· · 5 min read
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